The VCWA Hosts A ‘Timely’ Discussion of the Dynamics of the Ukraine Crisis
In honor of the organization's 70th anniversary, the Vermont Council of World Affairs (VCWA) inaugurated its new 'Timely Topics' series. The first event took place on Wednesday, February 23, 2022, at 6:00 PM (ET), showcasing and analyzing the invasion of Ukraine. John-Paul Himka, a historian at the University of Alberta, Canada, joined former former US diplomat and Vermont resident Bill Harwood for a discussion that provided context and analysis of the crisis for the Vermont community.
The nature and scale of this geopolitical crisis has intensifiedsince this event took place, escalating into a full-scale war, and Dr. Himka provided much-needed information and germane analysis to explain the dynamics underpinning the conflict.
Dr. Himka pointed to the role of Russian separatism in Ukraine as one of the important factors to understand when analyzing this conflict. He contextualized the Russian separatism within the Ukrainian borders within centuries of history and geopolitics in which the geographic space Ukraine exists in was ruled by a number of empires, such as the Ottoman, Habsburg, and Russian Empires and Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. He explained that the dynamics of the imperial borders and the subsequent complexity of the Ukrainian demographics have created much contention between modern Ukraine and post-Soviet Russia. Addressing the complexities of Ukrainian demographics and how this exacerbates the crisis, Dr. Himka described the formation and reality of the Ukrainian nation-state:
"Ukraine is not like France or Britain or even Spain, where there is a kind of unified, or relatively unified population. . .but it is a country that has been formed over the years from many parts of other countries."
Dr. Himka used maps to explain this geopolitical reality and the fractious demography.
"There are two places that are hot spots. One, the eastern/southeastern parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts which became (Russian) separatist entities. . .There has been fighting on the front between the two Donetsk and Luhansk republics in Ukraine since 2014."
He then proceeded to explain the role of Transnistria, a Russian-speaking separatist region in Moldova that buttresses the Western Ukrainian border, effectively surrounding Ukraine by Russian separatist movements with which Moscow has strategic sway. He explained how this greatly affects Ukraine's geostrategic position.
"This is the so-called Transnistria, or Pridnestrovie as we call it, which is Russian-backed and in a 'frozen conflict.' Moldova will not recognize this Pridnestrovian Republic."
From this starting point, Dr. Himka explained what he believes Putin wants, considering, Ukraine's demographic, geographic, and historical narratives. Other topics of discussion include what Dr. Himka believes the West will likely do to protect the Ukrainians and what will likely transpire.
VCWA members can access a recording of the event by emailing marya@vcwa.org. Information about future events at VCWA, including future 'Timely Topics,' can be found at https://www.vcwa.org/upcoming-events.
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